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INSIGHTS
Perspective for high-stakes financial decisions.
Market analysis, planning strategies, and commentary from Mike Germain, CFA, written for entrepreneurs, athletes, and retirees navigating complex wealth.
Market Analysis


Why Small Caps Are Beating Large Caps in 2026
A short read on the VB vs. VV performance gap, and what the valuation discount is really worth Through the close on August 14, 2026, the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) has returned 19.9% year-to-date on a price basis against 13.6% for the Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (VV), a gap of 6.3 percentage points. If it holds through December, it ends five consecutive years of large-cap leadership. The Russell 2000 is on pace for its best year since 2003 after its strongest first half since 199

Mike Germain, CFA
Aug 184 min read


Oil at the Chokepoint: The Sector Most Impacted by the War in Iran
The conflict that began in February 2026 delivered the sharpest quarterly oil shock in the modern record — and put a fifth of the world’s oil supply behind a contested strait. The short answer As with the war in Ukraine, the answer is energy — but the mechanism is entirely different. Ukraine severed a structural trade relationship; the war in Iran weaponized a physical chokepoint. Roughly 20% of global oil supplies flow through the Strait of Hormuz, about 80% of it bound for

Mike Germain, CFA
Aug 34 min read


Reading the Curve: What Treasury Yields Are Telling Us at Mid-Year
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has spent the past two years working its way back to a familiar shape. After the deep inversions of 2022–2024, the curve today slopes upward from end to end, a structure textbooks would call “normal.” But normal does not mean uneventful. The curve as of July 8, 2026, plotted below from Treasury quotes on the Charles Schwab fixed income platform, tells a story of a patient Federal Reserve, a remarkably flat belly, and a long end that is demanding

Mike Germain, CFA
Jul 143 min read


The U.S. Economy at Midyear 2026Three Strengths, Three Risks
As we cross the midpoint of 2026, the U.S. economy presents a study in contrasts. Beneath a string of headline shocks — a war with Iran, an inflation re-acceleration, and a new Federal Reserve chair — sits a real and durable engine of growth. Yet several of the risks that economists flagged as distant a year ago have become concrete. What follows is our view of the three things working most in the economy’s favor, and the three concerns we believe most warrant attention. A th

Mike Germain, CFA
Jul 26 min read


The SpaceX IPO: Three Strengths, Three Weaknesses
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in market history, listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The deal priced at a fixed $135 per share, sold roughly 556 million shares, and raised about $75 billion before an underwriter overallotment option worth a further $11.2 billion. At pricing, the company carried a valuation near $1.77 trillion; the stock closed its first session around $161 — up roughly 19% — pushing SpaceX past a $2 trillion m

Mike Germain, CFA
Jun 296 min read


Navigating Market Volatility: A Steady Hand During Uncertain Times
The financial markets are experiencing heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. With ongoing conflicts impacting global sentiment, many investors are watching their portfolio values fluctuate with growing concern. While these developments naturally create anxiety, history has shown us that maintaining perspective and adhering to sound investment principles during turbulent periods often separates successful long-term investors from those who

Mike Germain, CFA
Mar 276 min read


The Iranian Crisis and Its Impact on Global Oil Companies
Fifteen days into the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the global oil industry is experiencing what the International Energy Agency has called the "biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market." The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 10 million barrels per day from global supply — roughly 10% of world production — sending crude prices surging past $100 per barrel and forcing oil companies worldwide to confront a crisi

Mike Germain, CFA
Mar 165 min read


Silicon Valley's New Reign: Why AI-Powered Tech Leads the Next Investment Cycle
The next industrial revolution isn't coming; it's here, and it's powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Mike Germain, CFA
Dec 5, 20252 min read
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