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INSIGHTS
Perspective for high-stakes financial decisions.
Market analysis, planning strategies, and commentary from Mike Germain, CFA, written for entrepreneurs, athletes, and retirees navigating complex wealth.
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Incentive Stock Options and the AMT: Planning Your Exercise Windows
ISOs can offer favorable tax treatment, but the alternative minimum tax turns an ordinary exercise decision into a multi-year planning exercise. Incentive stock options (ISOs) remain common at Bay Area startups and growth-stage companies. Unlike RSUs, options give you the right, not the obligation, to buy shares at a fixed strike price. When a company's value has risen well above that strike, the potential economic benefit can be significant. So can the tax complexity, becaus
Mike Germain, CFA
9 minutes ago4 min read
August Jobs Report: A Stronger Labor Market Complicates the Fed’s Next Move
Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 4, 2026. June and July figures reflect revisions. The U.S. labor market delivered a surprise on Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, roughly three times the 55,000 gain economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. The unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, with about 7.0 million people un
Mike Germain, CFA
15 minutes ago6 min read
RSUs in Silicon Valley: Why Your Withholding May Not Cover Your Tax Bill
Restricted stock units are the backbone of tech compensation, but the way they are taxed in California surprises many employees every April. Restricted stock units (RSUs) have become the default form of equity compensation at public technology companies across the Bay Area. They are simple to understand on the surface: shares are granted, they vest overtime, and once vested they are yours. The tax treatment, however, is where many Silicon Valley professionals run into trouble
Mike Germain, CFA
4 days ago4 min read
Why Small Caps Are Beating Large Caps in 2026
A short read on the VB vs. VV performance gap, and what the valuation discount is really worth Through the close on August 14, 2026, the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) has returned 19.9% year-to-date on a price basis against 13.6% for the Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (VV), a gap of 6.3 percentage points. If it holds through December, it ends five consecutive years of large-cap leadership. The Russell 2000 is on pace for its best year since 2003 after its strongest first half since 199
Mike Germain, CFA
Aug 184 min read
A Tale of Two Quarters: The S&P 500's Top Five Sectors at Midyear 2026
The first half of 2026 rewarded investors who stayed the course. The S&P 500 finished June up 10.2%, but the path was anything but smooth: a -4.3% first quarter gave way to a 15.2% second-quarter surge, the index's best quarter in six years. Beneath the headline, five sectors separated themselves from the pack: Industrials (+20.2%), Information Technology (+19.8%), Energy (+19.7%), Materials (+12.0%), and Real Estate (+11.5%), per S&P sector data compiled by Novel Investor. I
Mike Germain, CFA
Aug 102 min read
Oil at the Chokepoint: The Sector Most Impacted by the War in Iran
The conflict that began in February 2026 delivered the sharpest quarterly oil shock in the modern record — and put a fifth of the world’s oil supply behind a contested strait. The short answer As with the war in Ukraine, the answer is energy — but the mechanism is entirely different. Ukraine severed a structural trade relationship; the war in Iran weaponized a physical chokepoint. Roughly 20% of global oil supplies flow through the Strait of Hormuz, about 80% of it bound for
Mike Germain, CFA
Aug 34 min read
Reading the Curve: What Treasury Yields Are Telling Us at Mid-Year
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has spent the past two years working its way back to a familiar shape. After the deep inversions of 2022–2024, the curve today slopes upward from end to end, a structure textbooks would call “normal.” But normal does not mean uneventful. The curve as of July 8, 2026, plotted below from Treasury quotes on the Charles Schwab fixed income platform, tells a story of a patient Federal Reserve, a remarkably flat belly, and a long end that is demanding
Mike Germain, CFA
Jul 143 min read
The Top 4 Investment Management Challenges Professional Athletes Face
A professional athlete’s financial life runs backwards. Most people earn modestly in their twenties, peak in their fifties, and spend down savings in retirement. A professional athlete often earns the bulk of a lifetime’s income before turning 30, then needs that capital to support the next 50 or 60 years. We think that single inversion sits underneath nearly every financial problem athletes encounter, and it makes investment management not a luxury, but a survival skill. The
Mike Germain, CFA
Jul 27 min read
The U.S. Economy at Midyear 2026Three Strengths, Three Risks
As we cross the midpoint of 2026, the U.S. economy presents a study in contrasts. Beneath a string of headline shocks — a war with Iran, an inflation re-acceleration, and a new Federal Reserve chair — sits a real and durable engine of growth. Yet several of the risks that economists flagged as distant a year ago have become concrete. What follows is our view of the three things working most in the economy’s favor, and the three concerns we believe most warrant attention. A th
Mike Germain, CFA
Jul 26 min read
The SpaceX IPO: Three Strengths, Three Weaknesses
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in market history, listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The deal priced at a fixed $135 per share, sold roughly 556 million shares, and raised about $75 billion before an underwriter overallotment option worth a further $11.2 billion. At pricing, the company carried a valuation near $1.77 trillion; the stock closed its first session around $161 — up roughly 19% — pushing SpaceX past a $2 trillion m
Mike Germain, CFA
Jun 296 min read
The Roth Conversion “Bridge”
Spending From Your Roth IRA While Converting a Traditional IRA at Low Tax Rates A retirement-income strategy from Propulsion Capital Management For many retirees, the years between leaving work and the start of required minimum distributions (RMDs) are the most valuable tax-planning window of their lives — and the most commonly wasted. Income is low, the paycheck has stopped, and RMDs haven’t started yet. That combination opens a door: the chance to move money out of a tax-de
Mike Germain, CFA
Jun 249 min read
From Concentrated to Diversified Pairing a Rule 10b5-1 Plan with Tax-Loss Harvesting
For many founders, executives, and early employees, a single stock represents the lion's share of their net worth. That position may have created enormous wealth, but holding it concentrated exposes that wealth to the fortunes of one company, one management team, and one set of risks that no amount of conviction can fully diversify away. The instinct to reduce that risk is sound. The execution is where it gets complicated. Unwinding a concentrated position into a diversified
Mike Germain, CFA
Jun 228 min read
Structuring NIL Income for Long-Term Wealth Accumulation
The Roth IRA Playbook for Athletes Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) income has done something the sports world has never seen before: it has put real, reportable earnings in the hands of athletes at the very start of their careers — often years before a first professional contract, and frequently while they are still in their late teens or early twenties. That timing can be a gift. Money invested at 19 likely has four to five decades to compound before retirement, and few fina
Mike Germain, CFA
Jun 128 min read
How Does the Charles Schwab 529 Plan Compare for California Residents?
How Does the Charles Schwab 529 Plan Compare for California Residents? Propulsion Capital Management is registered to provide advisory services in the state of California. This analysis is written specifically for California residents evaluating 529 education savings plans. Why 529 Plan Choice Matters for Californians California does not offer a state income tax deduction or credit for 529 plan contributions — to any plan, including its own ScholarShare 529. That means Cali
Mike Germain, CFA
Apr 179 min read
Navigating Market Volatility: A Steady Hand During Uncertain Times
The financial markets are experiencing heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. With ongoing conflicts impacting global sentiment, many investors are watching their portfolio values fluctuate with growing concern. While these developments naturally create anxiety, history has shown us that maintaining perspective and adhering to sound investment principles during turbulent periods often separates successful long-term investors from those who
Mike Germain, CFA
Mar 276 min read
Where Are We in the AI Technology Cycle?
The Big Picture Artificial intelligence has moved from the pages of science fiction into the core of how businesses can operate. Over the past three years, we've witnessed one of the fastest technology adoption cycles in history — and we believe we're now entering its most consequential phase. Understanding where we are in this cycle is critical for investors. Technology revolutions follow a predictable pattern: hype, infrastructure build-out, deployment, and finally maturati
Mike Germain, CFA
Mar 253 min read
Prepaid Forward Contracts: A Tax-Efficient Path to Diversifying Concentrated Stock Positions
For founders, executives, and early employees who have built significant wealth through a single stock, the question of how to diversify is rarely simple. Selling triggers capital gains taxes that can consume 20% to 37 % of the proceeds. Holding can concentrate risk in ways that would make many portfolio managers uncomfortable. And for those subject to SEC reporting requirements or company blackout periods, even the decision to sell isn't entirely theirs to make. Enter the
Mike Germain, CFA
Mar 217 min read
Exchange Funds: A Sophisticated Hedging Strategy for Concentrated Stock Positions
For high-net-worth investors who have built substantial wealth through a single stock — whether from founding a company, years of equity compensation, or an early investment that appreciated dramatically — concentration risk is one of the most significant threats to long-term financial security. While the position may have generated extraordinary returns, holding a disproportionate share of wealth in one security exposes the investor to company-specific risk, sector downturns
Mike Germain, CFA
Mar 195 min read
The Iranian Crisis and Its Impact on Global Oil Companies
Fifteen days into the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the global oil industry is experiencing what the International Energy Agency has called the "biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market." The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 10 million barrels per day from global supply — roughly 10% of world production — sending crude prices surging past $100 per barrel and forcing oil companies worldwide to confront a crisi
Mike Germain, CFA
Mar 165 min read
The Small Business Owner’s Guide: Strategies to Minimize Taxes and Build Family Wealth
How Solo 401(k)s, Strategic Family Employment, and Tax-Efficient Investing Can Transform Your Financial Future Introduction At Propulsion Capital Management, we work with small business owners every day who share a common frustration: watching a significant portion of their hard-earned revenue disappear to federal and state taxes. The good news? The U.S. tax code offers a powerful suite of retirement and wealth-building tools specifically designed for self-employed individual
Mike Germain, CFA
Mar 45 min read
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